I think there's too much out of your control. Like your health now, your genes, environment you're in now and one you grew up and even just luck really. Some people will lead very unhealthy lives and live into old age. Some people will dedicate their lives to keeping healthy and die young. There's just no way of knowing. Unhealthy lifestyles like you mention in your post will definitely increase risk of certain cancers , heart disease. Type 2 diabetes etc. But even then those things may not kill you and if they do could be very slow. Also you don't know when you'd develop them. As the risk of many things increases in older age . So Might not be until your 80 .
Have you never seen in the news people who made it to like 100 and swear their secret was whiskey and cigarette for breakfast or something . Too many unknown variables