Putin plays with fire.
I don't know the source I link. I usually read German news on these issues.
www.unilad.com
It seems more and more likely that Putin wants to invade another country probably a Baltic state. He wants to test NATO's response to provocations. Whether NATO would actually not back down if Putin invaded a Baltic state. He approaches more and more that option. He could invade small towns in Baltic states with a large minorities of Russian speaking people and claim he had to save them from the NATO fascists. He wil claim he only does that to give them a right of self-determination.
If Putin is determined to open a second front it could be rational to do that in the coming months or a few years. I would not wait until European countries invested billion of Euros into their military. In the long run Russia's power will decline. Their debt will grow and fossil fuels will becom less important. Intelligence services say it is likely Russia will invade a NATO country in the coming years. If they did it now, it would way earlier than predicted. They say Russia's military has to recover over their loses in Ukraine before invading another country. If I was Putin I would do it while Trump is in office. And maybe make an argeement with China. China invades Taiwan and Russia a Baltic state. The former might happen until 2027 for various reasons.
I think I am a Ukraine hawk. And I was that probably the whole time during this war. Scholz might prevented with his pressure on Xi that Putin used tactical nukes pretty early in the conflict. We will probably never know the truth. I wonder whether US intelligence services could still predict an invasion as precisely as in 2022. I think US intelligence services got way worse under Trump. And they look the other way round when Russia spreads misinformation that helps Trump.
I watch some commentators who might want to be seen as doves in this conflict. But I find them sort of delusional. Maybe there is some truth in the fact that NATO made Russia uncomfortable. If Ukrainians enjoyed the Western lifestlye this could have destabilized Russia simply because Russians would have wanted the same freedoms and Democracy. But in my opinion it is more than obvious who is the aggressor in this conflict especially looking at the last years. It seems insane that people still defend Putin. I watch Glenn Greenwald and he blamed NATO to be the aggressors because they "pretend" that the drones that fly in NATO borders were sent on purpose. Glenn really thinks this was coincidence. How stupid can you be? This happened now countless of times. It gets more and more aggressive. But I cannot take Glenn Greenwald serious anymore on Russia. He interviewed Dugin on how great the Russian Democracy was. LMAO. I am not sure whether Glenn is really that dumb or whether he simply wants to spread propaganda. Some leftwingers are totally blind and naive towards Russia. (Rightwingers too.) How can you deny what is obviously happening. There is this popular German politician Sarah Wagenknecht in the days before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine she promised Putin wants peace. She never changed her position on that even after the invasion. She simply invented new excuses why Putin acts the way he does. And the far-right AfD Is also pro-Russia.
One could only determine when worldwars started retrospectively. Maybe WW3 already started. But if Putin invaded a NATO state, we would be in the next stage with a massive escalation. If a NATO state was invaded, how do you think would NATO react? What would Trump do? I am not sure whether Trump would help us substantially. Would such a war, end in a nuclear war eventually with no chances to prevent it? I mean if NATO backs down to go to war, NATO would break down immediately losing its credibility. I am not sure whether Putin speculates on that. He does not respect Trump for sure.
Maybe the tensions calm down for some time in the coming weeks. But that intellgience services are right in their assessment that it is only a matter of time that Russia invades a NATO country seems likelier than ever before...
I don't know the source I link. I usually read German news on these issues.
Russian warplanes violate Estonian airspace in ‘unprecedented’ move as WW3 fears escalate
NATO nation Estonia has described the move by Russia as 'brazen'.
It seems more and more likely that Putin wants to invade another country probably a Baltic state. He wants to test NATO's response to provocations. Whether NATO would actually not back down if Putin invaded a Baltic state. He approaches more and more that option. He could invade small towns in Baltic states with a large minorities of Russian speaking people and claim he had to save them from the NATO fascists. He wil claim he only does that to give them a right of self-determination.
If Putin is determined to open a second front it could be rational to do that in the coming months or a few years. I would not wait until European countries invested billion of Euros into their military. In the long run Russia's power will decline. Their debt will grow and fossil fuels will becom less important. Intelligence services say it is likely Russia will invade a NATO country in the coming years. If they did it now, it would way earlier than predicted. They say Russia's military has to recover over their loses in Ukraine before invading another country. If I was Putin I would do it while Trump is in office. And maybe make an argeement with China. China invades Taiwan and Russia a Baltic state. The former might happen until 2027 for various reasons.
I think I am a Ukraine hawk. And I was that probably the whole time during this war. Scholz might prevented with his pressure on Xi that Putin used tactical nukes pretty early in the conflict. We will probably never know the truth. I wonder whether US intelligence services could still predict an invasion as precisely as in 2022. I think US intelligence services got way worse under Trump. And they look the other way round when Russia spreads misinformation that helps Trump.
I watch some commentators who might want to be seen as doves in this conflict. But I find them sort of delusional. Maybe there is some truth in the fact that NATO made Russia uncomfortable. If Ukrainians enjoyed the Western lifestlye this could have destabilized Russia simply because Russians would have wanted the same freedoms and Democracy. But in my opinion it is more than obvious who is the aggressor in this conflict especially looking at the last years. It seems insane that people still defend Putin. I watch Glenn Greenwald and he blamed NATO to be the aggressors because they "pretend" that the drones that fly in NATO borders were sent on purpose. Glenn really thinks this was coincidence. How stupid can you be? This happened now countless of times. It gets more and more aggressive. But I cannot take Glenn Greenwald serious anymore on Russia. He interviewed Dugin on how great the Russian Democracy was. LMAO. I am not sure whether Glenn is really that dumb or whether he simply wants to spread propaganda. Some leftwingers are totally blind and naive towards Russia. (Rightwingers too.) How can you deny what is obviously happening. There is this popular German politician Sarah Wagenknecht in the days before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine she promised Putin wants peace. She never changed her position on that even after the invasion. She simply invented new excuses why Putin acts the way he does. And the far-right AfD Is also pro-Russia.
One could only determine when worldwars started retrospectively. Maybe WW3 already started. But if Putin invaded a NATO state, we would be in the next stage with a massive escalation. If a NATO state was invaded, how do you think would NATO react? What would Trump do? I am not sure whether Trump would help us substantially. Would such a war, end in a nuclear war eventually with no chances to prevent it? I mean if NATO backs down to go to war, NATO would break down immediately losing its credibility. I am not sure whether Putin speculates on that. He does not respect Trump for sure.
Maybe the tensions calm down for some time in the coming weeks. But that intellgience services are right in their assessment that it is only a matter of time that Russia invades a NATO country seems likelier than ever before...
