DarkRange55
We are now gods but for the wisdom
- Oct 15, 2023
- 1,989
Timberland investing in North America typically produces returns in the range of 2–5% annually in nominal terms, but over 10-year periods it has consistently delivered 4–6% real returns, comfortably outpacing inflation. Trees are expensive to grow and require decades to produce quality sawlogs: rotation cycles vary from ~15–35 years for fast-growing softwoods like loblolly pine to 60–70 years or more for hardwoods. In Latin America, returns may be higher—around 7–10%—but so are operational, political, and environmental risks. As a result, timberland is most often held by institutional investors and large funds as a hedge in natural-resource portfolios, not by retail investors. Acquiring even a small tract can cost more than a million dollars, and catastrophic losses from disasters, pests, or disease can destroy decades of growth instantly.
Most access is indirect, through Timber Investment Management Organizations (TIMOs) or timber-focused REITs like Weyerhaeuser (WY)—the largest sector player—which offers access to underlying timber assets but operates largely in mills and wood products, which differ fundamentally from the slow-growth biology of timberland. Timberland has historically been cherished by old-money families—from the Rockefellers, Mellons, and Hearsts in the U.S. to the Weyerhaeuser family themselves, the Irving family in Canada, and aristocratic dynasties across Europe (Rothschilds, Habsburgs, Scandinavian nobles)—for its tangible value, intergenerational durability, and income flexibility.
Timber also comes with generous tax treatments: forestland classification often triggers lower property tax rates versus development land (generous tax breaks for keeping it timberland and not development land), and at the federal level, timber held longer than one year qualifies for long-term capital gains treatment under IRC §631 (preferable tax treatment), while documented losses (e.g., from storms, wildfire or pests) can be deducted against income.
Moreover, timberland stands out as one of the most reliable inflation hedges among real assets. Its real returns hold steady in inflationary environments, with timberland returns rising alongside inflation and showing strong correlations—typically in the high 80% range—compared to much weaker correlations for stocks or real estate. Since the 1960s, timberland has consistently outperformed inflation over multi-year horizons, delivering returns that significantly exceeded those of cash or bonds during the same periods.
Still, timberland remains highly volatile—lumber prices frequently swing widely with housing cycles, supply fluctuations, and global demand changes. Tariffs, forest fires, mill curtailments, beetle outbreaks, truckers strikes, etc. A notable example occurred in the U.S. South in the 1980s–1990s, when heavy institutional planting of loblolly pine flooded the market, causing a prolonged glut and sharply depressed prices—a lesson well documented by The Wall Street Journal and others.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/thousa...trees-for-retirement-it-didnt-work-1539095250
Regionally, differences matter significantly: in the Pacific Northwest, timberland is more expensive and heavily regulated (due to fish/water protections and labor costs). Species like red alder and big leaf maple command different premiums depending on age and use—e.g., mature big leaf maple suitable for instruments can fetch up to $3,000–4,000 per cord. The 1990 Forest Resources Conservation and Shortage Relief Act banned unprocessed log exports from federal lands in the West, effectively ensuring most timber is milled domestically before export, particularly to Asia.
Overall, timberland blends biological growth, inflation resistance, favorable tax treatment, and intergenerational wealth preservation into a durable, hard-asset investment. For institutions or seasoned investors with long horizons, it can be a powerful inflation hedge and wealth store; but it's capital-intensive, illiquid, and management-heavy—unsuitable for those seeking quick returns.
Most access is indirect, through Timber Investment Management Organizations (TIMOs) or timber-focused REITs like Weyerhaeuser (WY)—the largest sector player—which offers access to underlying timber assets but operates largely in mills and wood products, which differ fundamentally from the slow-growth biology of timberland. Timberland has historically been cherished by old-money families—from the Rockefellers, Mellons, and Hearsts in the U.S. to the Weyerhaeuser family themselves, the Irving family in Canada, and aristocratic dynasties across Europe (Rothschilds, Habsburgs, Scandinavian nobles)—for its tangible value, intergenerational durability, and income flexibility.
Timber also comes with generous tax treatments: forestland classification often triggers lower property tax rates versus development land (generous tax breaks for keeping it timberland and not development land), and at the federal level, timber held longer than one year qualifies for long-term capital gains treatment under IRC §631 (preferable tax treatment), while documented losses (e.g., from storms, wildfire or pests) can be deducted against income.
Moreover, timberland stands out as one of the most reliable inflation hedges among real assets. Its real returns hold steady in inflationary environments, with timberland returns rising alongside inflation and showing strong correlations—typically in the high 80% range—compared to much weaker correlations for stocks or real estate. Since the 1960s, timberland has consistently outperformed inflation over multi-year horizons, delivering returns that significantly exceeded those of cash or bonds during the same periods.
Still, timberland remains highly volatile—lumber prices frequently swing widely with housing cycles, supply fluctuations, and global demand changes. Tariffs, forest fires, mill curtailments, beetle outbreaks, truckers strikes, etc. A notable example occurred in the U.S. South in the 1980s–1990s, when heavy institutional planting of loblolly pine flooded the market, causing a prolonged glut and sharply depressed prices—a lesson well documented by The Wall Street Journal and others.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/thousa...trees-for-retirement-it-didnt-work-1539095250
Regionally, differences matter significantly: in the Pacific Northwest, timberland is more expensive and heavily regulated (due to fish/water protections and labor costs). Species like red alder and big leaf maple command different premiums depending on age and use—e.g., mature big leaf maple suitable for instruments can fetch up to $3,000–4,000 per cord. The 1990 Forest Resources Conservation and Shortage Relief Act banned unprocessed log exports from federal lands in the West, effectively ensuring most timber is milled domestically before export, particularly to Asia.
Overall, timberland blends biological growth, inflation resistance, favorable tax treatment, and intergenerational wealth preservation into a durable, hard-asset investment. For institutions or seasoned investors with long horizons, it can be a powerful inflation hedge and wealth store; but it's capital-intensive, illiquid, and management-heavy—unsuitable for those seeking quick returns.
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